And the Beat Goes On...

New Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke raised the Federal Funds rate another 1/4%, showing his willingness to continue short term rate hikes to keep inflation in check. The Federal Funds rate is now the highest it has been in 5 years.

Economist Predicts Stagnant Housing Market

The UCLA Anderson Forcast for the California housing market predicts a period of stagnation with flat home prices and slumping sales. The UCLA Anderson Forcast is typically negative on the California housing market...

One of the most bearish analysts tracking California's real estate market issued perhaps his gloomiest forecast yet on housing, a prediction that rekindled an incendiary debate about his outlook.

California's housing market has veered into a period of stagnation that will last years and be marked by flat home prices and slumping sales, according to a report released today by the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

Home prices in the Golden State will remain "stagnant" through the end of the decade, said Christopher Thornberg, senior economist with the Anderson Forecast, which included the assessment of the once white-hot housing market in the state as part of its quarterly forecast on California's economy.

Still there is reason for optimism about the California economy.

Still, Thornberg believes the overall California economy is strong enough to weather turbulence in real estate.

"Tourism, manufacturing output and professional services are growing quite rapidly, and they will help offset the decline in housing," Thornberg said. "And the high-tech sector is coming back in both manufacturing and services."

Read the whole article here.

Foreclosures up, at least for Actors....

Don Johnson, the star of Miami Vice and Nash Bridges, is apparently in default on his 10.6 million dollar loan on his aspen estate. A lot of things happen when you don't make your payments, and most of them are bad...

An Expensive Lesson

You've no doubt heard the saying "A wise man learns from his own mistakes, and a really wise man learns from the mistakes of others". Here is a rather painfull real life lesson that a local seller just learned. Their home was put on the market at $1,300,000 about 30 days ago (I changed the price slightly to protect their privacy). They had several people look at the home the first week it went on the market, and received an offer immediately for $1,250,000. Of coures, the seller thought that since they had so many buyers look at it, that they would no doubt get multiple offers, and more than the asking price. So they decided to wait and not respond to the offer.

After waiting two more weeks, no other offers materialized. Worse yet, the original buyer, no doubt offended at the lack of response from the seller, had moved on. Now the home has been on the market for more than 30 days, and they had to reduce their price to $1,200,000 or $50,000 below the offer they had on the table.

Often you hear the old adage "the first offer is always the best offer". That is often true, and it was certainly true in this case. I can think of 50,000 reasons why they should have taken the first offer.

New Homes Sales Down....

And now for something completely different. New home sales nationwide declined by a whopping 10.5%. Experts were expecting a decline, but more in the 2% range. Regionally, the West experienced a 29% decline in the number of new home sales in February.

The Commerce Department reported that sales of new single-family homes dropped by 10.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 1.08 million homes. It was the second straight monthly decline and was much bigger than the small 2 percent dip that Wall Street was expecting.


The drop in new home sales followed news Thursday that sales of previously owned homes actually rose by a stronger-than-expected 5.2 percent last month following five straight monthly declines. Analysts said the trend in both reports pointed to a slowing housing market after five record-setting years.

Read the whole article.

Nationwide Housing Sales Up in February, but....

National Association of Realtors reports that nationwide sales of resale homes in February rose 5.2% from January. This followed 5 straight months of declining sales. The increase caught most economists by surprise.

However, many previously "hot" markets showed a decline in sales

David Lereah, the Realtors' chief economist, said there has been a real split in performance in recent months, with many previously hot markets suffering declines as rising mortgage rates make higher-priced homes less affordable.
He said sales were down by double-digits in such previously sizzling sales markets as Phoenix, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., and San Diego.

By contrast, he said some medium-priced markets were posting strong sales gains, citing Indianapolis, Albuquerque, N.M., and Houston as examples of double-digit gains.
"This is a report of a tale of two cities," he said. Lereah said higher interest rates were "tapping the brakes, notably in higher-cost housing markets."

Read the whole article.

Robust Job Market for College Grads

Good news for college grads.

U.S. college graduates are facing the best job market since 2001, with business, computer, engineering, education and health care grads in highest demand, a report by an employment consulting firm showed on Monday.

"We are approaching full employment and some employers are already dreaming up perks to attract the best talent," said John Challenger, chief executive of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

In its annual outlook of entry-level jobs, Challenger, Gray & Christmas said strong job growth and falling unemployment makes this spring the hottest job market for America's 1.4 million college graduates since the dot-com collapse in 2001.

The firm pointed to a survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers which showed employers plan to hire 14.5 percent more new college graduates than a year ago.

Salaries are expected to be higher also. Read the whole thing.

Fun with the Cost of Housing Index

According to CNN Money, the following figures represent the difference in housing costs between our area and several other cities. I used San Jose, which is closest to the average cost of housing in the Tri-Valley, and an income of $100,000. Here are a few of the results:

Phoenix, AZ 67% less. But what about skin cancer??
Colorado Springs, CO 65% less. Great skiing too
San Diego 22% lower. I doubt they are talking about La Jolla, though
Tampa, Fl 64% less. But a 143% higher rate of bugs the size of baseballs
Boise, ID 67% less. Close to Sun Valley too
Jackson, MI 70% less. Would have to be about 500% less to even tempt me
Eugene, OR 56% less. But granola is twice as expensive
Raleigh, NC 68% less. And their basketball teams kick butt
Carson City, NV 55% less. But can you stay away from the slot machines?
Manhattan, NY 41% higher. Might be worth it if I get to meet Tony Soprano
Honolulu, HI 13% lower. Hmmmmm....
Seattle, WA 53% lower. Of course, you have to take prozac to handle all the rain

Despite the cost of housing, this is still a great place to live. But Honolulu is tempting...

Link to the calculator

Nationwide Housing Starts Down

Nationwide housing starts declined in February by 7.8% as compared to January, which was a record setting month for housing starts. The decline was not as steep as most experts predicted.

"This big decline is coming off an extraordinary number in January. It was natural, " said Jim Glassman, an economist at J.P. Morgan. "This bodes pretty well for housing activity, it's a very good level. Although it doesn't mean housing activity isn't slowing."

A drop was expected in February simply because January's numbers were so high, a surge attributed to builders taking advantage of unusually warm weather.

The report said housing starts for February are 4.8 percent lower than this time last year, but building permits are 2.5 percent higher.

Glassman said housing starts are the more closely watch figure, and the year-over-year decline, coupled with low inflation numbers that should support the housing by keeping interest rates from rising much further, suggest the real estate is coming in for a soft landing rather than a crash.

Read the whole article courtesy of CNN Money.

New Nordstrom at Stoneridge Mall put on hold

Well, looks like the new expanded Norstroms at Stoneridge is on hold, at least for the time being. Financial troubles have caused the The Mills Corporation, owner of the mall, to put the project on hold. The proposed addition of PF Chang's and the Cheesecake Factory may go ahead as planned.

The move stalls, temporarily at least, 186,000 square feet of improvements to Stoneridge, the mall's first major change since the construction of the Sears retail store in 1997.


Construction was scheduled to start in January on a new two-story Nordstrom department store totaling 144,000 square feet in front of the current facility. Also affected is a 900-car parking garage planned on Stoneridge Mall Road adjacent to the new Nordstrom building, and new retail stores and a movie theater that were to be built in the old Nordstrom building once it was vacated.


City Planning Director Jerry Iserson said two other parts of the project, a Cheesecake Factory restaurant adjacent to Macy's women's store and a P.F. Chang Chinese restaurant, may be on track. The Cheesecake Factory submitted building plans to the city's Planning Department and P.F. Change has submitted a plan check, but not yet asked for a permit.


"Actually, I think they all are under the Mills Corporation umbrella, so it's uncertain just what might go forward at this time," Iserson said. "Everything was cleared through the Planning Commission last fall, but we still haven't heard anything from Mills."

Read the whole article.

Home Sales Tumble Again

As reported in the S.F.Chronicle

Bay Area home sales tumbled in February for the 11th month in a row and prices appreciated at their slowest rate in two years, as the region's real estate market showed further signs of cooling.

The median price for a single-family home in the nine-county area was $637,000 in February, up 12 percent year over year, but well below November's peak of $656,000. A total of 6,206 condos and houses changed hands, nearly 17 percent below last February's tally, according to real estate information firm DataQuick.

In part, experts attributed the current slowdown to the previous large number of transactions that had been spurred by rock-bottom interest rates. Now that rates are rising, the pool of potential buyers has shrunk.

"The market could go into a lull phase for a while where prices flatten out because we've pulled a lot of (sales) activity from the future," said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll.

Karevoll, whose monthly reports are based on filings with county recorders' offices, expects annual appreciation rates to sink into the single-digits by later this spring.

Yes, the market has slowed to a deliberate pace. Expect to see much of the same as we enter the spring and summer months, with perhaps more inventory on the market.

Where to Find the Best Price on Gasoline

Interesting link if you would like to find out where the cheapest gas is availale in your area. Just click on the following link.

Gas Locator

Giving It Away

One of my favorite lines I hear all the time from stubborn sellers is "I'm not going to give it away!". Now I went to a state University, but even I would find it hard to rationalize the "I'm not going to give it away!" line. Consider the following:

- Often, sellers who say this purchased the home years ago for under $100,000, and now want to sell it for say $800,000. When an offer comes in $50,000 less, they play the "I'm not going to give it away" card. Now, I'm quite certain that if you bought anything for $100,000 and sold it later for $750,000, it would not qualify as giving it away, even if you use "new math".

- Look at what a buyer has to make to qualify. If a buyer puts down 20% on an $800,000 house, their mortgage payment and taxes alone will run over $4500 per month on a 6% loan (fully amortized). That means their income has to be $150,000 or more to qualify, assuming they don't have a lot of personal debt like car payments and credit carsds. And they have to come up with the 20% downpayment, or $160,000 plus closing costs to buy it. When you loook at it from that perspective, it hardly seems like "giving it away".

So please, let's all do away with the "I'm not giving it away" dramatics and get serious about working out a deal everyone can live with.

East Bay Leads Bay Area in Jobs Growth

Great article in the Valley Times about the East Bay economy and jobs. The East Bay is poised to easily outpace the rest of the Bay Area, and possibly the rest of the state, in economic growth in the near future.

The freight car of the Bay Area economy has turned into its strongest engine.
The East Bay has long been the home of blue-collar industries such as shipyards, steel mills, oil refineries and chemical plants. Its products have ranged from World War II Liberty ships to digital-age computer chips. It is an office center and a bedroom community. It contains inner cities and edge cities.
And it is increasingly the best job market in the Bay Area, creating employment that in turn bolsters the overall East Bay economy and underpins wages, retail sales and business investment.
Welcome to the Bay Area's only million-job economy. While the tech and Internet debacle erased enough jobs in the South Bay and the area containing San Mateo, San Francisco and Marin counties to drive each of those economies well below 1 million jobs, the Alameda-Contra Costa region has stayed above that benchmark through thick and thin.
"The East Bay is a locomotive of growth," said Sean Snaith, director of the Business Forecasting Center at University of the Pacific in Stockton. "And the East Bay is poised to outperform the rest of the state."

One of the keys is economic diversity. The East Bay is not overly dependent on one industry or segment, such as high tech. This diversity leads to a stable economy.

"It's a more evenly spread out economy in the East Bay," Thornberg said. "If a region specializes in an industry cluster, it's great if that cluster does well. But it's horrible for your economy if the cluster does poorly."
It's true that the region's economy has been bolstered by housing the past several years. But analysts believe the East Bay also enjoys propulsion from a number of industries that have no close ties to real estate.
This economic diversity is why the East Bay is not perched on an economic precipice and does not face a dot-housing scenario, in the view of Tapan Munroe, a Moraga-based economist.
"We're talking about an East Bay housing boom without a bust," Munroe said. "At worst, this is a boom with a slow leak."
The East Bay economy closely resembles that of all of California, and even the entire nation. Alameda and Contra Costa counties never had their eggs wholly in the high-tech and dot-com basket. Instead, the region enjoys a broad mix of industries that are about the same size.

As I have said on several occaisions, there can be no real estate bubble if the region continues to add jobs.

Read the whole article.

The Bubble Theory - The Case Against

Again, courtesy of the S.F. Chronicle, here is the case against "the bubble". Here is the main argument made by this author...

"A bubble is the wrong image," says Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. "I think a balloon is a much better image. It expands and contracts as air goes in and out, but it maintains its integrity."

His prediction for the housing market's future is, with a few exceptions, a remarkably sunny one: low interest rates, continued annual appreciation, a lean supply accompanied by demographics guaranteed to produce a strong demand.

"All this tells me that if the demand is there," says Lereah, "we can take these prices even higher."

The factors that led to the current boom are still firmly in place, he says. Sure, the rate for the benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has risen, from 5.62 percent in February 2005 to 6.28 percent this February, but it's still low.

In 2006, a year he refers to as a transition year, Lereah predicts it may even rise to 6.9 percent. Sales have also slipped a bit, he says, but that's due to affordability, and to investors -- who, as a breed, are in the habit of bolting like deer at the snap of a twig -- pulling out of the market.

Demographic trends, Lereah says, will assure strong demand. Baby Boomers remain in their peak earning years. Their children, the so-called Echo Boomers, are primed as first-time home buyers. A record number of established immigrants are financially equipped to buy property and start building wealth for their families.

Toss in anticipated job and income gains, low inflation, reduced closing costs and loans that made it easier to become a first-time home buyer, he says, and you've got all the elements of a healthy market.

"The fundamentals haven't changed," Lereah says. "It's still a great time to invest in real estate."

I think a baloon is a perfect analogy for the real estate market locally. And yes, some air has leaked out. But the healthy outlook for jobs and growth, especially in the East Bay, make the prospects of a real estate "bubble" more than a little far fetched, barring some catastrophic world event like a bird flu pandemic or nuclear war.

Read the whole thing

The Bubble Theory - the Case For The Bubble

Interesting reading in the Sunday Chronicle. Two experts give their opinion of "the real estate bubble". First is the argument for why there will be a bubble, and why and how it will burst. Here is the main point of the argument:

Talbott regards the latest data on the Bay Area housing market as mounting evidence for his prediction: rising interest rates, decreasing appreciation, 10 straight months of declining sales and, in January, the lowest number of sales in five years.

The problem, he says, is that home prices are way overvalued -- just as Internet stocks were during the 1990s before that sky collapsed. As evidence, he points to the growing discrepancy between Bay Area home prices and rents, an indicator commonly used by economists to determine a property's true value.

Novato's RealFacts puts the average Bay Area apartment rent in the fourth quarter at $1,324; DataQuick calculates that the typical home buyer in December committed to a $2,867 mortgage payment.

"It paints a very scary picture," Talbott says. "Something has economic value because it has cash flow. If you discount for general inflation and go back 120 years in history, you'll discover that, in real terms, housing prices were relatively flat until 1997 -- then (they) shot up about 70 percent."

To buy these overvalued homes, he says, many consumers overextend themselves financially by borrowing more from banks. They end up paying an inordinately high percentage of their monthly income on mortgages. In Los Angeles, he points out, the average new homeowners, usually a young couple, are spending 55 percent of their monthly income on a mortgage payment.

"They have to make decisions about whether they're going to pay the mortgage or go to the movies," Talbott says.

Banks are lending more, he says, because they are sticking to their old qualifying formula of computing the ratio of the loan applicant's salary to the mortgage payment. They're doing this, he said, without adjusting for inflation.

"So the banks are using the same stupid formula. They convince these young couples to borrow a million-dollar note that they're never gonna get out from under."

To make matters worse, Talbott says, an increasing number of borrowers are taking out variable-rate and interest-only loans. According to San Francisco's LoanPerformance.com, half of all Bay Area home buyers used interest-only loans to make their purchases last year. With so much of their income already relegated to their mortgage payment, says Talbott, even a small rise in interest rates will push many to -- and beyond -- their limit. For others, a divorce or job loss will spell financial ruin.

Because of the above factors, Talbott predicts a wave of loan defaults and foreclosures. Bank presidents will be fired for making so many risky loans. The new presidents, wanting to clean up the mess, will unload the properties at a loss, perhaps for 40 to 60 cents on the dollar. This will flood the market and deflate home prices further.

And then, according to Talbott's prediction, the financial impact will, like an especially vicious virus, spread. First, the real estate industry will falter. Then, industries tied to real estate -- including banking, construction, home supply stores -- will be hurt.

"And then you've got a real recession," he says, "that will wash across the middle of the country."

Hmmmm.... not sure I agree this point of view. The cost of home ownership will always be more than the cost of rent, because there are so many benefits to owning a home such as tax benefits, appreciation, pride of ownership, equity paydown, and the inherent benefits of owning your own home. In fact, after tax considerations are taken into account, the true cost of ownership (not considering appreciation)is much closer to the cost of renting.

Read the whole thing.

Possible expansion of Adobe Park

The Austin family has submitted a preliminary plan to the Pleasanton Planning Commission for the development of approximately 30 acres off Foothill Rd next to Jorgensen Lane. The plan calls for eight 1 acre home sites, with the rest of the land being dedicated to the Adobe Park project, with a portion of the land dedicated to local 4-H clubs for raising cows, pigs, and sheep.

The offer to dedicate the Austin acreage has been made before, but for many newer members of the Planning Commission, City Council and the city planning staff, it was new news. Coupled with the council's approval of funding March 7 to proceed with developing the Alviso Adobe Park, the Austin acreage would expand the park site from 7 acres to more than 30.

New Office Building in Downtown Pleasanton

A new 8000 sq ft office/retail building is under construction on E. Angela Street across from Meadowlark Dairy. The bottom floor is slated for restaurant/retail businesses, with the top story being targeted for office or possible salon uses. Parking, always a concern in downtown Pleasanton, has met the parking requirements for downtown.

Read the whole thing

5 Red Flags for an IRS Audit

According to CNN Money, here are the 5 Red Flags that can put you at higher risk for an audit. I guess donating my 1972 pinto and claiming its value at $15,000 might not be such a good idea afterall...

Think you know how the IRS picks its audit victims? You may want to reconsider that notion.

Even most accountants say they don't know how to crack the IRS' audit formula.

But with the tax agency auditing 1.2 million individuals last year and the IRS ramping up its enforcement spending in recent years, experts say it might be worth taking a look at your return to make sure you aren't making yourself a target for the tax man.

Overkill on charitable contributions
While giving to your favorite non-profit can be rewarding both personally and for the tax break, giving to charity could attract the attention of the IRS, especially if the donation is disproportionate to your annual income.

And you might even want to think long and hard before you start inflating the value of that 1982 Dodge Diplomat you donated this summer or the Paul Cezanne painting you gave to charity, says Jeffrey Kelson, a partner at the New York offices of accounting firm BDO Seidman.

Many individuals, says Kelson, will overvalue those items and think that the IRS won't notice.

"You have to be careful if you take large, non-cash contributions," says Kelson. "You have to back them up with receipts."

Too many deductions for the self-employed
For those Americans that are self-employed or run a small business, the IRS is really watching you. "That's part of the territory," says Kathy Burlison, the director of tax implementation at H&R Block.

While filing a Schedule C alone may not be a red flag, the IRS is wary of these taxpayers since they contributed about $68 billion to the $345 billion tax gap as of 2001.

The tax man knows there is a temptation by self-employed taxpayers to blur the distinction between personal and business expenses, such as a mileage deduction on your car or calling that room in the basement of your home your office.

But don't think you're fooling anyone with that trick, says Burlison. In fact, the IRS will probably size up your expenses relative to your business to make sure your return is honest. "Those are areas that the IRS tends to be more concerned about being abused so they are more likely to be audited," she says.

Above-average deductions
Martin Kaplan, a certified public accountant and the author of "What the IRS Doesn't Want You To Know," says that the IRS is also closely looking at unusually high deductions.

If you earned $100,000 from your day job, but gambled in the real estate market this year and claimed a $40,000 loss, you might become audit material. "The [IRS] computer definitely generates a much greater amount of audits based on categories where incomes and losses are offsetting each other," says Kaplan.

At the same time, the tax man will weigh the deductions and expenses on your return against other taxpayers in your income bracket (see chart). While you might not be able to do anything about that $20,000 medical bill or the inheritance you received from a departed relative last year, if your deductions or expenses tend to be higher than normal that could raise a red flag.

Making six figures
It may not be promising news for those individuals on the higher end of the tax strata, but believe it or not, if you make over $100,000 a year, that could draw some attention to your tax return.

During the fiscal year 2005, audits of taxpayers taking home over $100,000 annually reached 221,000, double the number in 2001.

And if that's not enough to convince you, in November, IRS Commissioner Mark Everson said in a statement that the coverage of this category "still too low".

According to tax experts, those individuals are lucrative targets for the IRS. "They are focusing on taxpayers making $100,000," says Kelson. "They want to get a return on those returns."

Careless omissions
Kaplan, who has served as a certified public accountant in New York City for the past 35 years, also stressed the importance of keeping your return as neat and slim as possible.

That means filing electronically instead of handwriting your return and avoid attaching out any unnecessary forms to your tax return. "If there is a need for additional info they'll ask for it," says Kaplan. "You're trying to avoid someone putting hands on your return."

But maybe the best advice, says H&R Block's Burlison, is to provide as transparent a return as possible. "The number one thing to avoid contact from the IRS is to make sure you report everything."

Small Businesses forsee growth, spending

A recent survey by Union Bank of California indicates that small businesses in California are optimistic about business prospects, and see continued growth and spending. The key findings indicate

- Almost 70% predict better profits this year as compared to 2005
- 72% said they will spend more money this year as compared to 2005
- Hiring expectations remained steady
- 41% are planning capital expenditures on land, buildings & equipment

In terms of concerns, the top concerns for small businesses are

- Over 50% sited CA worker's compensation insurance costs
- State and local business regulations were sited for 32% of the respondents
- Health Care costs & increased taxes were sited by 31% of the businesses

Courtesy of East Bay Business Times print addition, March 3, 2006

Go to New Mexico for cheap land?

Unless you want to buy part of Val Kilmer's ranch. He just listed 1800 acres for $18 million dollars.

The ranch, once owned by actress Greer Garson and her husband, Buddy Fogelson, is in high-desert canyon country and looks as if it's straight out of the Old West. The Santa Fe Trail runs through it, and there are 4 miles of trout-filled river as well as fields of wildflowers and ponderosa-lined limestone cliffs. There is wildlife -- deer, turkeys, black bears, cougars, beavers, eagles and falcons.

The part of the ranch Kilmer is selling has a log-and-stucco ranch house with four bedrooms and four bathrooms in 5,600 square feet and two guest cottages. Each cottage is about 1,000 square feet and has one bedroom and one bathroom.

There are extensive staff quarters, heated stables, foaling barns and corrals. Kilmer said that he grew up riding horses in the Chatsworth section of Los Angeles and has several on the ranch, which feeds more than 100 animals, among them buffalo and llamas that roam the property.

For $18 million, I wonder if the former star of Batman includes his bat cave. It would be the least he could do.

Sales drop, inventory is up, but what about prices?

Sales of single family homes in the state dropped over 24% when compared to January of 2005, according to the California Association of Realtors. Also, the inventory of unsold resale homes in California almost doubled from January 2005.

Median prices, perhaps the most widely published indicator of home prices, was up 14% in Alameda County in January as compared to January 2005. Contra Costa County showed a 17.8% increase over the same period. Read the whole article.

These two trends can not continue at the same time for long. Expect to see a softening in the median home price figures as we get into spring.

Meanwhile, Sacramento seems to have gone into a sales slump. The number of sales dropped over 30% in January as compared to December and to January of last year. The median home price also declined 1.5% from December.

The word on the street from local builders is that Sacramento new home sales are very slow.

Buiding Permits Up in January

Bulders took out almost 30 percent more permits for single family homes in January as compared to January of 2005, according to the Construction Industry Research Board. But housing starts were down by approximately 10% in the same period.

The association's housing forecast predicts that in 2006, California's housing production will drop slightly compared to the near-record construction activity in 2004 and 2005 to between 185,000 and 205,000 homes, condominiums and apartments, compared to about 213,000 in 2004 and 208,000 in 2005.

Layne Marceau, 2006 CBIA Chairman and a Bay Area homebuilder, said in the statement that production still is not keeping up with the demand for new homes and apartments. He again called for removing state and local barriers that restrain production and drive up costs.

"The annual demand for new homes in California continues to be in the 240,000 range, but this year production will only be about 80 percent of the total need, which is hurting potential and existing home buyers struggling to enter or move up in the market," Marceau said.

Read the whole article, courtesy of the East Bay Business Times

East Bay Unemployment Up in January

According to the California Employment Development Department, the unemployment rate in the East Bay increased from 4.1% in December to 4.7% in January. Courtesy of the East Bay Business Times.